AGM batteries using sulfuric acid as electrolyte an aqueous solution of pure , having a density of 1.29-1.3lg / cm3. Most fiber membranes being present in the glass , while the suction plate inside the outer part of the electrolyte . In order to provide oxygen to the positive electrode to the negative precipitated channels must be kept 10% of the membrane pores is not possession of the electrolyte, ie lean solution design. A very tight group using a fitting manner,so that the plates full contact with the electrolyte . Meanwhile, in order to ensure there is enough battery life, the plate should be designed to be thick , positive grid alloy using Pb'-q2w-Srr - A1 quaternary alloy . AGM sealed lead-acid battery electrolyte less thicker plates, active material utilization rate is lower than the opening battery , and the battery discharge capacity of the battery is lower than the opening of about 10 %. Compared to today's colloidal sealed battery the discharge capacity is smaller.
AGM batteries are widely used in communication systems, power systems, emergency lighting systems, automated control systems, fire and security alarm systems, solar energy, wind energy systems, computer backup power , portable equipment, instrumentation, medical systems equipment , electric vehicles, power tools, etc. .
Compared with the same size battery, the price is higher, but with the following advantages:
1. rechargable lead-calcium battery capacity than three times higher , longer life .
2. has a higher capacitance stability over the entire life cycle.
3. The low temperature performance and more reliable.
4. Reduce the risk of accidents and reduce the risk of environmental pollution ( due to the sealing means 100% acid )
5. The maintenance is very simple , reducing the depth of discharge .
Cost analysis is based on a simple and important arithmetic relationship.Most photovoltaic costs are given in $ / WP, while costs expressed in $ / WP are reasonable for end users.Especially when it comes to system prices.However, other cost expressions will hide the technical problems of thin film solar AGM Battery.$ / WP cost can be divided into two parts: output power or conversion efficiency of the device and production cost per unit area.However, the cost and conversion efficiency of different thin film solar cell technology routes vary greatly.The potential cost of many technical routes is very low, not the potential cost is particularly low, but the conversion efficiency is usually insufficient, resulting in a high $ / WP cost. The challenge of these technical routes is to improve device performance.If people only highlight their low non-production costs, they often ignore the problem of high $ / bound [ 1 cost ].On the contrary, some thin film solar cell types have higher conversion efficiency and higher unit area cost, but their competitive advantage can be determined by $ / WP cost.
The arithmetic relation of cost conversion is also simple: the power cost $ / WP can be divided by the area cost $ / m2 divided by the output power WP / m2 per unit area, and the output power WP / m2 per unit area can be obtained by multiplying the irradiance 1000 WP / m2 of the standard test condition STC by the conversion efficiency 7.The same arithmetic relationship can also be applied to the component level: the cost of a single component $ / component " divided by the output power of a single component" WP / component " gets the power cost $ / WP.Obviously, such an arithmetic relationship can also be reversed: if the power cost $ / WP is known and the conversion efficiency is 7, or the output power per unit area WP / m2, or the area cost $ / m2, the remaining unknown parameters can be calculated.
Unit area can be component area or m2 area used in this chapter.Therefore, the output power per unit area is the standard test condition STC rated power or 1000 WP / m2 multiplied by the conversion efficiency of 7 on the component label.Then, the $ 10 / m2 area cost is $ 0.1 / WP for components with 10 % conversion efficiency and $ 0.2 / WP for components with 5 % conversion efficiency.$ 1 / WP power cost is $ 80 / m2 for 8 % conversion efficiency components, but $ 120 / m2 for 12 % conversion efficiency components.These are all examples of using the arithmetic relation ( 11.1 ).Because the cost and conversion efficiency of various thin-film solar cell technology routes are quite different, this arithmetic relationship needs to be used frequently to make a clear analysis of the cost.
Cost analysis results
Different substrate materials can be selected: glass, stainless steel sheet or polyimide for the common component balance of all thin film solar AGM Battery.We only choose common substrates and packaging schemes, such as glass / EVA or TEF ZEL / EVA.Because of the high cost of these packaging schemes, the cost-effectiveness is limited.However, laminated packaging is critical to reliability, so such a slightly higher cost seems reasonable.However, any technological breakthrough in packaging costs will benefit the development of thin film solar AGM Battery and even crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery and will need to be handled separately.If there is a new technology that can greatly reduce the packaging cost, it should be developed and popularized as soon as possible so as to obtain a considerable competitive advantage.
Actual. 3 gives the BOM common cost analysis of glass substrate, while the cost analysis of TEF ZEL and polyimide substrate will be estimated in actual. 4.The accounting aspects not included in the cost analysis here are: sales, marketing, management, research and development, quality assurance, transportation, insurance, taxation and other expenses and profits.These aspects will be counted in future system prices.BOM design has top and bottom contacts, bus bars and leads, and necessary adhesives.Cost estimates include raw materials, equipment depreciation, maintenance costs, labor costs and factory rents.If all designs use the same EVA adhesive, TEF ZEL, TCO, bottom contact metal and other raw materials, the same assumptions will be used.If the applied process or active layer thickness changes, the cost of these raw materials will need to be adjusted.We also included the cost of AGM Battery monolithic interconnection or soldering in the cost estimate.In the design of thin film solar AGM Battery, the non-part where large cost differences will occur is the active layer between the transparent conductive oxide TCO top contact and the metal bottom contact.This method makes cost analysis more universal, but it also sacrifices some aspects of characteristics.Actual. 3 gives the common cost estimation and decomposition of BOA 4. The design of thin film solar AGM Battery is as follows: the simplest glass / glass upper layer configuration or substrate configuration, indium tin ITO as TC for top contact, EVA adhesive and glass for bottom.The manufacturer of the upper layer configuration will purchase the glass with TCO to deposit the active layer, while the manufacturer of the substrate configuration will purchase the glass without TCO and deposit TC by itself before capping the top layer glass. The higher production cost indicates that purchasing TCO glass from the glass manufacturer has a greater yield advantage, while the yield of self-deposited TCO in the substrate configuration is smaller without a cost advantage.If the conversion efficiency of the thin film solar cell module is 10 %, which is equivalent to the output power of 100 w / m2, the area cost of $ l / m2 is equivalent to the power cost of $ 0.01 / WP.Assuming that the manufacturer's annual production capacity is 25 MWp / a, the area cost of $ l / m2 is equivalent to the annual cost of $ 250000, which is about 2 % of the BOM cost.The total BOM cost is $ 5462 / m2. It is equivalent to $ 1315.5 m / a or $ 0.540.62 / WP.However, the 5 % conversion efficiency component itself will reach the power cost of $ 1.08 - l 24 / WP.It should be noted that all cost values in this chapter are estimates and will change according to design changes, mass purchases or technological innovations.These aspects will be reflected in the subsequent cost analysis table.
However, the classic glass / glass assembly is not the only package design.Actual. 4 and Actual. 5 show various BOA 4 combinations of current cost and production level, almost including the lowest cost of various thin-film solar AGM Battery BQM today, such a reserve price is in the range of $ 60 - 75 / m2, and the BOM here does not include any semiconductor active layer that converts incident light into current.This is an important result because the U.S. Department of Energy ( DOE ) has a long-term target of < $ 5o / m2 for the BOM of thin-film solar cell modules and includes all aspects.However, these BOM cost estimates are only rough statistics of existing costs and do not include factors such as technological progress or economies of scale. However, these cost reduction factors will be very important.As a matter of fact, due to stable mass production, we can expect the b0a4 cost, which does not change the design too much, to drop by about 25 % and 50 % in the foreseeable future, as shown in the actual .7.If the design of the component is changed again, such as replacing the back package with a thin film barrier layer or making other fundamental changes that can maintain stability, the cost reduction will be even greater.Although design improvements may reduce costs more, future BOM area costs will still be in the range of about $ 2040 / m2.This is a key parameter for planning the research of thin film solar cell technology, so improving the conversion efficiency will still be the focus of research and development.
Actual. 4 analysis can give some conclusions:
The current use of stainless steel or polyimide will require the addition of a barrier layer to the bottom package, i.e. EVA / TE ￠ ZEL here to replace EVA / glass, thus greatly increasing the cost.The flexible components applied to the roof have the advantage of system balancing BOS, which can completely offset the cost of the additional components here.In the design of future components, replacing these materials with low-cost substrates requires rigorous reliability testing.EVA, TEF ZEL and on - site production of glass may further reduce costs, but we will not discuss this situation here for the sake of conservatism.
We also estimated the commonness of non-standard design, and studied the BOM of double-electrode stack and four-electrode stack o double-electrode stack and four-electrode stack of double-junction AGM Battery, which need to be different according to cutting, top / bottom junction connection and external wiring, as shown in actual 5.
Actual. 5 analysis can give some conclusions:
The BOM of the double electrode stack design is basically equivalent to the glass / EVA / glass module design of the single junction cell, which is also the design of the existing double junction amorphous silicon thin film solar cell and only increases the cost of the tunnel junction in the BOM.The multi-junction AGM Battery can achieve higher conversion efficiency, thus offsetting the increase in cost.The four-electrode stack design BOA 4 increases the cost of $ 17 / m2 while increasing the assembly conversion efficiency by 1 % compared to the two-electrode stack, so such an increase in conversion efficiency does not seem to be able to offset the increase in BOM.
In order to determine the total cost of components, it is necessary to estimate the non - BOM cost of semiconductor active layers for various thin film solar cell technologies, while technologies such as copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar AGM Battery will involve different fabrication processes.Physical vapor deposition PVD, chemical vapor deposition CVD, precursors and selenization methods are all to be estimated.However, we can't completely copy any company's specific methods, neither can we do it nor can we do it due to confidentiality issues.Therefore, even the most detailed level of estimation cannot be absolutely accurate.However, our cost estimate is as close as possible to the steady-state manufacturer's level and avoids the cost of the first test line design of the production base.The module design and process flow of thin film solar AGM Battery can be further understood through the literature [ 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 ].
The actual. 6 shows the non - BOW decomposition of the dual-junction amorphous silicon thin film solar cell. The module is designed as an upper-layer configuration. An A - Si / A - Si active layer is prepared in batches on TCO / glass, and the BOM is estimated according to the actual. 3 upper-layer configuration cost.A variety of thin film solar cell technologies can be used to give non-decomposition according to the actual classification of .6.The estimated direct production cost of a 6 % conversion efficiency dual-junction amorphous silicon thin-film solar cell module of $ 1.56 / WP seems reasonable relative to the sales price of about $ 2.25 / WP, and such cost and price come from manufacturers with low output and high daily expenses that can not reach 25 MWP / A per year at present.At a yield of 85 % and a component conversion efficiency level of 6 %, the area cost of $ l / m2 is equivalent to the power cost of $ 0.02 / WP, so the non - BOM capital cost and maintenance cost are only about $ 10 / m2, that is, the power cost of $ 0.2 / WP.This is the advantage of batch process for amorphous silicon thin film solar AGM Battery, and the low capital cost method for cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery also has similar advantages.This also means that the initial capital investment minus maintenance costs is low, with a capital cost of $ 1.8 / WP per unit power and an annual capacity of 25 MWP / A equivalent to $ 45m.If the conversion efficiency is further improved, the same area cost will result in lower power cost and initial capital investment.Low conversion efficiency is a disadvantage to batch amorphous silicon thin film solar cell technology.
As mentioned earlier, dye-sensitized solar AGM Battery, bulk heterojunction solar AGM Battery and quantum dot solar AGM Battery, the third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery, have not yet achieved sample production, so the accuracy of cost estimation cannot be guaranteed.In fact, this is a problem that all cost forecasts will encounter, and the estimated value may deviate greatly from the real situation.In our research.The non-cost estimation of the third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery is optimistic because cost-effectiveness is the unique advantage of these solar cell technologies.However, the prediction of conversion efficiency is not optimistic, because this aspect is still the biggest challenge for these technologies.However, the long-term development of cost and conversion efficiency of the third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery will tend to be stable, which is worthy of optimistic expectation.However, the final stable cost and conversion efficiency of the third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery will determine their competitiveness in the photovoltaic market because the niche market is limited after all.To sum up, we deal with second generation thin film solar AGM Battery such as amorphous silicon, copper indium gallium selenium and cadmium telluride, which are relatively conservative because these technologies are mature and have abundant data.BOM treatment is also conservative and there is no assumption of scale effect.The third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery benefit from its uncertainty and need to explore its potential value.Therefore, the cost analysis of the second generation of thin film solar AGM Battery is " realistic" while the cost forecast of the third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery is " optimistic".
In order to study the development trend of thin film solar cell technology and annual production capacity in the next few stages, the cost analysis results of BOA 4 and non will increase with the maturity of technology and production rate.We assume that the common cost of BOM in a single production base will decrease by about 10 % per stage with the increase of production rate or annual production capacity, as shown in actual .7 ..Assume that the annual production capacity of the first production stage is 25 MWP. The subsequent stages are 50,200 and 1000 MWP / A respectively, with the reduction of BOM cost.Finally, the BOM with an annual capacity of 1000 MWP / A is about 25 % lower than that with 25 MWP.Here, the BCWW learning curve of thin-film solar AGM Battery is not radical. The decline of BOM with annual production capacity is not much larger than that of existing crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery, and the decline of non - BCWW with annual production capacity of thin-film solar AGM Battery is much larger.
In a recent study?The bottom-up method is applied to the cost analysis of thin film solar AGM Battery. The results show that the bulk purchase, make - buy decision and design improvement will greatly reduce the cost.The long-term BOA 4 cost of glass / TCO there is 50 % lower than that assumed here, in part because of more aggressive design assumptions, replacing back glass with an unproven plastic barrier layer, and combining with a panel glass production base of 3g WP / a scale to greatly reduce costs.In other words, the BOA 1 cost analysis here should be very conservative.For the glass / EVA / glass assembly design with a conversion efficiency of 10 %, we reduced the BOM cost from $ 0.54 / WP to $ 0.39 / WP according to the actual. 7, while the document [ 7 ] thought it could be reduced to $ 0.12 / WP.This kind of cost estimation difference is very big, and will cause many system cost differences.
According to different technologies, the change of non-part with the expansion of annual output energy is also analyzed from bottom to top.We summarized various anticipated technological advances and their cost reduction impacts.For example, the thickness of the active layer can be reduced to 1 mm and a practical high efficiency device can be finally realized. It is considered that each production scale has the same performance improvement amplitude.Other expected technical improvements include:
Faster semiconductor deposition rate;
Higher material utilization;
a more uniform film;
Higher film quality;
a wider substrate;
The current highest AGM Battery conversion efficiency technology will be more integrated into the typical commercial components in the future.
In addition, a certain scale effect is also assumed, especially on the capital cost of equipment purchase, but it is not as radical as literature [ 7 ].The estimated costs caused by these expectations are greatly reduced as the maturity of the technology and the production rate increase, as shown in actual .8.After the production capacity was raised from 25 mwp / a to 1000 mw / a in the current year, it is estimated that the non - b0a4 of the most conservative amorphous silicon thin film solar cell decreased the least, cadmium telluride thin film solar cell was the second, while copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell was the highest.This relationship is due to the assumed high capital cost of copper indium gallium hitting thin film solar AGM Battery, and the thinner semiconductor active layer and higher material utilization ratio will greatly reduce the semiconductor material cost of cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery and copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar AGM Battery.However, this also means that expectations for amorphous silicon thin film solar AGM Battery may not be accurate.
In order to obtain the total cost of components, these non - BOM costs need to be designed according to different substrates and packages.Add appropriate commonness and environmental protection costs ( es & h ), and add recovery costs to cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery, see actual .9.The total cost of the copper, indium, gallium and selenium thin film solar cell module here is also more optimistic than other technical routes, which is due to the expected reduction in capital cost and raw material cost, especially for the evaporation process.This is also due to the more mature technical routes of amorphous silicon thin film solar AGM Battery and cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery.
We analyzed the total component cost of various main thin-film solar cell technical routes from the general and non-cost of BOM, but the production cost is only one aspect of the development brought about by the expansion of the annual capacity, and the other aspect is that the component conversion efficiency will also develop rapidly with the expansion of the annual capacity.In many cases, there will be two directions of technical route development, either optimizing production costs or optimizing component conversion efficiency.
Actual. 10 predicted the trend that the conversion efficiency of commercial components will increase with the increase of annual production capacity.Conversion efficiency will affect both component cost and system cost, and the application of specific thin film solar cell technology needs to be determined by terminal P ..However, roof arrays are usually limited in area and tend to be components with high conversion efficiency.In fact, the " increase ratio" in 10 indicates 1000 stomachs.The ratio of the conversion efficiency of the / 3 annual energy output to the existing 25 MWP / A annual energy output component is increased, while the ratio to the conversion efficiency record reflects the ratio of the expected component conversion efficiency at 1000 MWP / A annual energy output to the current laboratory conversion efficiency record.
The conversion efficiency of commercial components updated according to the network in August 2005 is shown in the actual .11 ..The actual 11 data may be somewhat different from the actual 10.The estimated price is a mass purchase price, and the temperature coefficient will vary depending on the local solar spectrum.
Actually, the thin-film solar cell technology analyzed on March 11 has already entered the production stage of test line samples, but there are still some alternative thin-film solar cell technology routes that also need to be predicted in terms of cost and conversion efficiency.However, studying the production cost and conversion efficiency of these alternative thin-film solar AGM Battery will bring more uncertainty and require a more cautious approach to the analysis results.The development of the cost and conversion efficiency of alternative thin-film solar AGM Battery is not only uncertain, but also has certain technical risks in reducing the cost of the preparation process.For example, the stability of new technologies may be a big problem.If the technology is stable, then we can make analysis and comparison.However, if the technology is not stable, then such analysis comparison is invalid, and using these analysis results alone may cause misleading results.On the other hand, certain reliability problems exist not only in the second generation of thin film solar cell technology, but also in crystalline silicon thin film solar AGM Battery.In order to estimate the cost of the third generation of thin film solar AGM Battery, several assumptions need to be made.
Alternative thin-film solar AGM Battery also use the common analysis results we have already obtained, which lays a certain foundation for further non - analysis.As to whether the new technology will be more competitive than the existing mature technology, it is still difficult for us to make a judgment.
In general, alternative thin film solar cell technologies can be divided into two categories:
The second generation of thin film solar cell technology has been improved, but it has not yet reached the test line level, such as CIGS precursor ink technology or microcrystalline silicon thin film solar cell technology;The so-called " third generation thin film solar cell" technology, such as dye-sensitized solar AGM Battery, bulk heterojunction solar AGM Battery, quantum dot solar AGM Battery and CdTe / CIGS laminated AGM Battery.
Actual. 12 shows the trend that the non - B0A4 cost of alternative thin film solar cell technology will decrease with the increase of annual production capacity.At present, these technologies have not achieved large-scale production and need to reach a considerable production rate level to be competitive.However, this may not be the real development path of alternative thin film solar cell technology.We can't predict the complex requirements of unknown production processes and the problems that will occur in large-scale production in the future, which may become potential factors to increase non - BOM costs.Although these complex factors may also appear in other technologies, people are more aware of these relatively mature technologies and are less likely to be affected by potential complex problems.Therefore, the actual cost forecast made on December 12 needs to assume that the new technology will not encounter too many problems in the development of production costs.
Actual. 13 gives the conversion efficiency estimates of various alternative thin film solar cell technologies, and the specific values need further discussion.It is noted that the prediction of component conversion efficiency in the future is quite different from the current level.In fact, in many areas of technology, the new technology will develop so slowly that it may eventually be eliminated.
In fact. 14, the qualitative evaluation of the industrial development of various thin film solar cell technologies was carried out, and the relative risk coefficient before the technologies reached an annual capacity of 1000 MWp / a was given.The existing risks are mainly manifested in the technical problems in the process of increasing the production scale, the operation of the test line and the stability of the products, which are based on the gap between the existing conversion efficiency level and the long-term successful industrialization conversion efficiency level.When we assess the current situation and development potential of various new technologies, we need to be cautious about these risks.Due to similar challenges, many of the early thin film solar cell technology routes deviated from previous expectations and have been completely abandoned.This shows that the risk of new technology needs to be paid enough attention until it is confirmed by industrial development.
For the expectation of an annual capacity of 1000 mwp / a, we studied the decomposition of component production costs according to maintenance costs, power consumption / factory rent, raw materials, capital costs and labor costs.This is only a non-part of the cost of the semiconductor active layer. Only by combining BOM commonness, component conversion efficiency, environmental protection cost ES & H and system balance BOS cost can the final system cost be obtained.
It is noted that power consumption is relatively expensive.Even if the energy recovery period of the thin film solar cell module is about one year by EPBT, the outdoor power generation in the medium light area is 170 kWh / m2, while the conventional electricity charge is $ 0.05 / kW - h, which is equivalent to the power generation cost of $ 8.5 / m2.However, the cost of $ 8.5 / m2 also includes common parts, and the non - BOM will be further reduced with time and technological progress ( for example, the active layer thickness will be thinner and the non - BOA 4 cost will be reduced by half ).However, even though 60 kWh / m2 ( $ 3 / m2 ) in actual .1 is still a considerable part of the cost, this also indicates that other non-cost is relatively low.
It can be seen from the actual. 1 that batch A - Si / glass has great advantages over on-line A - Si / flexible substrate, especially the capital cost is much lower.However, after taking into account BOM, BOS and component conversion efficiency factors, the advantages of batch A - Si / glass disappeared, as shown in Actual. 19 and Actual. 21.When the flexible component shows advantages at the system level, the relative advantages of the glass component are lost, so the flexible amorphous silicon thin film solar cell becomes a more competitive product.Such an advantageous change pattern also occurs in other thin film solar cell types.If the judgment process does not include other factors, the obvious advantage at a cost or conversion efficiency level will be misleading.In fact, for all solar cell technologies, cost and conversion efficiency are the two opposite aspects of the problem, while stability is the overall requirement.Each technical route " bets" on its own advantages and ultimately requires a combination of advantages from all sides.For example, cadmium telluride thin-film solar AGM Battery may not have absolute advantages in every aspect, but they are the most comprehensive advantages of all technologies and can achieve the lowest system cost, as shown in actual. 19 and actual. 21.
The copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell has high cost, high conversion efficiency and low cost, low conversion efficiency sample stage in various technical routes.Although the cost of various copper, indium, gallium and selenium thin-film solar cell technology routes is mostly higher than the actual low-risk technology of. 1, it has considerable development potential due to its high conversion efficiency.
Thin film X - Si refers to various silicon-based thin film solar AGM Battery with crystalline silicon as the active layer.comprises an epitaxial crystalline silicon thin film solar cell, a heterogeneous substrate crystalline silicon thin film solar cell and a polycrystalline silicon thin film solar cell.The reason why thin film X - Si " bet" on crystalline silicon is that crystalline silicon technology is well known and its conversion efficiency is expected to exceed that of amorphous thin film solar AGM Battery. However, it has proved difficult to realize high conversion efficiency thin film X - Si because crystalline silicon is an indirect band gap semiconductor.Among the different technical routes of thin film X - Si, some use higher temperatures and incur additional substrate costs, while others use lower temperatures.but cannot produce devices with high conversion efficiency.This is the cost uncertainty brought about by the incomplete development of the technical route.Dye - sensitized solar AGM Battery are completely different photovoltaic technologies and have the potential to achieve a lower non - BQM while maintaining a considerable conversion efficiency.However, dye-sensitized solar AGM Battery have stability problems because they are not known about their outdoor use, which will consume their obvious cost advantages.Although the non - BOM of the dual-electrode CdTe / CIGS / glass multi-junction cell assembly is 6 times that of the quantum dot solar cell, such non-difference disappears at the system level, as shown in Actual .19 and Actual .21.When BOM commonness is added and the relative conversion efficiency of the dual-electrode CdTe / CIGS / glass multi-junction AGM Battery assembly is more than twice that of the quantum dot solar cell, the system cost result of the dual-electrode CdTe / CIGS / glass multi-junction AGM Battery assembly is more advantageous.If BCM, BOS and component conversion efficiency are not taken into account, then we may come to the wrong conclusion.
From the actual. 20 and actual. 22, it can be seen that the high-risk alternative thin film solar cell technology ( except the hybrid technology not produced in large scale ) is not easy to compare with the single-junction cadmium telluride thin film solar cell and the single-junction copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell which are simpler in structure and lower in risk.So, whether these alternative thin film solar cell technologies need to be further studied becomes a question.If these technical routes do not have any advantages over low-risk technologies, why do we still need to study them?I'm afraid such a problem is too severe.It is possible that with the further development and reduction of BOM and BOS, the advantages of these high-risk and low-cost technologies will increase, but it should be noted that the low-risk technologies will also benefit from the reduction of BOA 4 and BOS.Finally, some high-risk technologies may be applied to other technologies.For example, quantum dot technology is used as a low-cost bottom AGM Battery to remove the remaining long-wavelength photons at the lowest cost.Why can such a design be established while quantum dot technology has no development potential?This is because the dual-electrode design will only incur very little additional cost, while the conversion efficiency of the single quantum dot solar cell technology is too low, BOA 4 will account for the major part of the total cost of the component, while the non - BOW cost of quantum dot technology can be very low.
Combined with all the above derived and assumed values, the development trend of component power cost in $ / WP can be summarized, and various thin film solar cell technical routes can be sorted according to the total cost of $ / WP components, as shown in actual .15.Then, according to the actual. 1611.18, the final system price ranking with arbitration function is obtained.The actual total component cost of. 15 includes BOM, non - BOM and environmental protection costs es & h, but the direct production costs here do not include various costs and profits such as sales, marketing, management, research and development, quality assurance, transportation, taxation, insurance, etc.
The price comparison at the system level requires not only BOS cost, but also market, management, other miscellaneous expenses and profits.The system balance BOS will vary with different applications.We studied the ground installation system and the roof system respectively. The actual. 16 is the ground installation system, the actual. 17 is the glass component applied to the roof system, and the actual. 18 is the flexible component applied to the roof system.BOS costs are the sum of hardware and non-hardware costs, while non-hardware costs refer to the design, preparation, installation and transportation of photovoltaic systems.While calculating BOS cost, profit margin and operation and maintenance costs ( 0 & m ) were also calculated.A practical example of a ground-based installation system is a photovoltaic system installed and managed by Tucsoneleccpower in Springer Village, Arizona, USA [ 14 ] It should be noted that low component conversion efficiency will cause a large area cost loss and the same ground-based installation system output power will require more components.We will see later that this situation will be different in commercial roof systems.
Actual. 17 Actual. 18 shows BOS required when glass assemblies with supports and flexible assemblies without supports are applied to roof systems.The BOS area cost of the flexible component is lower than that of the glass component because the hardware cost is saved without a bracket, and the non-hardware cost is saved by simpler assembly and installation.The reduced area cost allows for lower conversion efficiency, so the flexible component is still quite competitive with other glass components.In other words, in the application of roof system, the glass components of thin film solar AGM Battery do not have the cost reduction potential of flexible components.
Actual. 4 and actual. 5 show the contents of actual. 19 and actual. 21 with curves, respectively. Actual. 4 compares the system price and relative risk coefficient of ground-mounted systems for various thin-film solar cell technical routes at 1000 MWp / a annual capacity.However, actual. 5 compares the system price and relative risk coefficient of the roof system at 1000 mwp / a annual capacity.
Actual. 19 Actual. 22 and Actual. 4 Actual. 5 analysis can give some important conclusions:
Although the telluride thin-film solar cell and the copper indium gallium selenium thin-film solar cell have the lowest long-term cost and the advantage of cost reduction reaches 30 %, the inherent problems such as the shortage of raw materials in and te mean that the development of thinner AGM Battery ( about 0.51 m ) can help these two technologies to meet the terawatt challenge and achieve affordable Internet access.It is not clear whether these two technologies can achieve the component conversion efficiency given in actual .10 with reduced active layer thickness.Although not only cadmium telluride thin-film solar AGM Battery and copper indium gallium selenium thin-film solar AGM Battery have commercial potential, they will certainly achieve the best level of cost-effectiveness when combined with scale effects.
Cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery are expected to become the mainstream of the photovoltaic market, but they are particularly advantageous for ground-mounted systems.As far as roof systems, especially small systems, crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery still have great advantages due to their high conversion efficiency.
In the long run, copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar AGM Battery have the same advantages as cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery, but their industrialization will be one stage later than cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery and amorphous silicon thin film solar AGM Battery.Such a delay may make it difficult for the Cu - In - Ga - Se thin film solar cell to fully realize its potential.The technical risk of Cu - In - Ga - Se thin-film solar AGM Battery is also higher, and not all key challenges can be overcome, because there is no production base with an annual capacity of 25 MWP / A as of 2005.Therefore, without sufficient risk assessment, it cannot be concluded that the copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell will have the same competitiveness as the cadmium telluride thin film solar cell.
Despite its good potential, dual-electrode or four-electrode CdTe / CIGS multi-junction batteries may not achieve long-term success because the system price of multi-junction batteries will be similar to that of separate single-junction batteries, but more rare In and Te will be used per unit WP, and more complex production processes will offset higher conversion efficiency.In the medium term, CdTe 83IGS multi-junction batteries may find niche markets where conversion efficiency is more important than system cost, such as small roofs, but this will not become a major market.
The top cell of the double-electrode CdTe / quantum dot cell is a cadmium telluride thin film solar cell, while the bottom cell is a quantum dot solar cell, so special attention should be paid to current matching.The dual-electrode CdTe / quantum dot cell has smaller cost and conversion efficiency advantages than the separate single-junction cadmium telluride thin-film solar cell or single-junction copper indium gallium selenium thin-film solar cell.Intuition alone, adding cheap quantum dot solar AGM Battery, bulk heterojunction solar AGM Battery or dye-sensitized solar AGM Battery as bottom AGM Battery to absorb the remaining low-energy photons from the top AGM Battery without damaging the CdTe top AGM Battery would be a wise potential method.This technology is a very risky alternative to thin film solar cell technology because it has not been successfully prepared in the laboratory.
Various silicon-based thin-film solar AGM Battery, including amorphous silicon thin-film solar AGM Battery, microcrystalline silicon thin-film solar AGM Battery and thin-film X - Si AGM Battery, can be prepared into glass components or flexible components.The system price of the glass module is between the traditional crystalline silicon thin film solar cell and the cadmium telluride thin film solar cell / copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell.However, the silicon-based thin-film solar cell glass module has encountered difficult competition in the near future and does not have an advantage in any respect, and it is difficult to compete with crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery or cadmium telluride thin-film solar AGM Battery.However, the flexible components of silicon-based thin-film solar AGM Battery ( e.g. amorphous silicon thin-film solar AGM Battery prepared on stainless steel thin-film substrates ) are quite competitive with crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery at the system level, especially suitable for large-area metal roofs, which is an important market.
The glass components of dye-sensitized solar AGM Battery are similar to silicon-based thin film solar AGM Battery in many ways and have lower capital costs.However, dye-sensitized solar AGM Battery have not yet been mass-produced and their outdoor reliability has been questioned.All aspects of component design need to overcome stability problems, which can lead to increased costs.
Low conversion efficiency seriously hinders the development of quantum dot solar AGM Battery, heterojunction solar AGM Battery and other third generation thin film solar AGM Battery.Their conversion efficiency is so low that they can only be used for some special indoor applications.Even if the conversion efficiency will be improved, these third generation thin film solar AGM Battery will completely disappear from the photovoltaic market due to the low maturity, technical risks of mass production and outdoor reliability problems.In order to have a competitive advantage.The third generation of thin film solar cell technology needs to reach the conversion efficiency level of other technologies and fully verify its reliability.
At present, it is not clear whether these new third generation thin film solar cell technology routes will encounter raw material supply problems.The shortage of Ru dyes will be an obvious problem, but the future design will limit the use of Ru, which is a necessary research topic.
As a rational confirmation and comparison, the crystalline silicon solar cell module with a conversion efficiency of 15.6 % has a cost of $ 1.85 / WP, which, combined with the most radical BOS, will result in a long-term system price of $ 2.62 / WP.The current leadership of crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery in the photovoltaic market means that this most mature solar cell technology will remain competitive in the foreseeable future.According to the above analysis, only thin film solar AGM Battery can change this situation.In fact, as the photovoltaic market continues to grow rapidly, crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery and thin film solar AGM Battery will share the market together.
To a large extent, each thin film solar cell technology route has some key problems, which may hinder the ultimate commercial success.Relevant practitioners and technicians need to try their best to solve these problems while keeping the explosive growth of mass production.The industrialization of thin-film solar AGM Battery may not be very successful, but some " doubt factors" should be added with more cost estimates, such as the competitiveness of crystalline silicon solar cell technology compared with low-risk ones.
On the other hand, any scientific research achievement that may promote the technological progress of specific thin-film solar AGM Battery ( for example, the record of laboratory conversion efficiency has been greatly improved ) will enhance the leading position of this technology in the photovoltaic field.So.The long-term conversion efficiency predicted by us for various thin-film solar cell technology routes may change.
Any new low-cost packaging design beyond the assumptions in this chapter may reduce the cost of all applicable components, but it needs to be confirmed that good reliability can be maintained.
* Even if there is no competitive advantage in traditional applications, all kinds of third generation thin film solar AGM Battery need to maximize conversion efficiency ( e.g. using a novel multi-junction cell structure ) and confirm whether a specific design ( e.g. lower process temperature ) will bring lower production costs.However, outdoor reliability will still be a major challenge.
We analyzed the technical routes of various thin-film solar AGM Battery here and found that cadmium telluride thin-film solar AGM Battery and copper indium gallium selenium thin-film solar AGM Battery have high conversion efficiency and low production cost and are the two most potential technical directions.However, it is arbitrary to judge directly from the conclusion here that one technology must be superior to the other, because the analysis here has inherent uncertainty and requires the successful implementation of large-scale production.In fact, if all kinds of technical routes are effectively implemented, the long-term potential prices we have given have great similarity, which does not mean that the final prices of these technical routes have potential similarity, but indicates that all kinds of technical routes need to overcome similar challenges if they are to reach parity.
In order to calculate the outdoor power generation cost of the thin film solar cell module, the above-mentioned $ / WP system price needs to be converted into the leveling energy cost ( LEC ) so as to compare it with the thermal power cost to determine whether it reaches the level of affordable Internet access.
In Kansas City, the average sunshine level in the United States, $ 1 / WP component power cost is equivalent to ( the level energy cost LEC of Z 6.1 / kWh.Therefore, the actual power cost of $ 1 / WP ground installation system and the power cost of $ 1.5 / WP roof system given in .19 and 11.21 are equivalent to each other?9 / kWh photovoltaic power generation cost.Especially for large-scale systems installed in sunny areas, the cost of photovoltaic power generation based on LEC will be lower.Overall,?The cost of photovoltaic power generation at 9 / kWh has reached the parity level and can meet the terawatt challenge.Moreover, the common BOM component cost and BOS system cost assumed by the cost analysis here are relatively conservative.
Raw material problem
So far, we have emphasized the potential of thin-film solar AGM Battery to achieve cost-effectiveness in photovoltaic power generation, which is very important for achieving affordable access to the Internet and the terawatt challenge for large-scale photovoltaic power generation.However, other factors will also affect the affordable Internet access and the Taiwa Challenge.A major problem is the supply of raw materials.In order to achieve a cumulative PV installation of 1020 TW in the middle of the 21st century, we need to install about 50100 TWP solar AGM Battery because the capacity factor CF of PV power generation is 15 % 25 %.In order to achieve such installation in 2065, the production and installation of solar AGM Battery should have a high initial growth rate and reach an annual production and installation of about 4000 GWP in 2065.As shown in actual. 6.In this way, people had about 15TW ( not peak power ) of photovoltaic installation in 2065.to supply electricity demand.
The author has already discussed the raw material demand of Taiwa Challenge on the NREL website of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the United States [ 15 ], and here is a summary.
In addition to copper, there is no need to worry about the shortage of other basic materials such as glass, steel, aluminum frames and plastics.If the current extraction growth rate of copper ore drops, copper shortage will occur, and BOS design needs to be changed to another conductor.We expect some semiconductor materials to have raw material supply problems.Document [ 15 ] shows that only copper indium gallium hits the thin-film solar cell and cadmium telluride thin-film solar cell will have a certain shortage of raw materials, while all kinds of silicon-based thin-film solar AGM Battery will not be restricted, and even ge will not encounter a shortage of raw materials, because ge is one of the main unused by-products in aluminum mines, coal mines and zinc ores.More novel third generation thin film solar cell technology needs further research?Not included in our discussion for the time being.
Since copper indium gallium selenium thin-film solar cell association and cadmium thin-film solar cell are important low-cost technologies, the cumulative production of in, se and te from 2065 and the maximum installed capacity of these two thin-film solar AGM Battery were calculated in practice.In fact, the data in 24 come from literature [ 16, 17, 18 ].The maximum installed capacity in 2065 is the cumulative production in 2065 divided by the demand ( MT / TWP ).It is assumed that both the copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell and the cadmium telluride thin film solar cell have 15 % component conversion efficiency and the active layer thickness is 0.5 mm.Future research may further reduce the thickness of the active layer while improving the conversion efficiency, thus continuing to reduce the demand for raw materials.At present, the by-products of most minerals have not been used [ 17 ], and we have not considered sources of raw materials such as tellurite that do not appear in the table.In the current copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell, 20 % of the required in is replaced by ga, and more ga may be included in the future design.The cumulative production in 2065 used the assumed extraction growth rate.In order to calculate the actual cumulative yield in. 24, it is assumed that the extraction of Cu and Zn grows steadily according to the historical curve, while the extraction growth of Cu is more likely to slow down in the next few decades.However, the amount of unused by-products is also very uncertain, and the actual value of .24 is based on the extrapolated average values of In and Te in the main minerals.However, processing these mineral by-products to extract in and te is an economic challenge because only 60 % 80 % of the basic metal components can be extracted.In addition, the available by-products are not used in the early stage of the growth of the photovoltaic industry, nor are they the normal process flow of the mining industry, but must still be kept in sufficient quantity to be adequately supplied in the stage of rapid growth of demand in the future.Actual. 24 The calculation of the installed capacity of copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar AGM Battery and cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery before 2065, that is, the cumulative yield, is based on the following assumptions:
All the output is applied to the production of thin film solar AGM Battery.
The annual growth rate of mineral exploitation is 1 %.
% of material utilization;
Raw materials are fully recovered.
Actual. 24 uses optimistic prediction, assuming that the raw materials are completely recovered and the active layer thickness is 0.5 thinner, while the current active layer thickness of copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell and cadmium telluride thin film solar cell is about 13 mm, their laboratory conversion efficiency records are 20.3 % and 16.7 %, respectively, and the corresponding cell thickness is 23 or thicker.At present, the non-optimized thick copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell prepared by NREL achieves a conversion efficiency of 17 percent [ 19 ], the 0.9 cadmium telluride thin film solar cell prepared by Toledo University in the United States achieves a conversion efficiency of 11 percent [ 2 ( B21 ), and even the cell with a thickness of 0.25 has been designed and some related work has been carried out [ 22 ].Up to now, reducing the thickness of the active layer has not become a major research direction, because the current component cost does not need to be optimized.However, the thickness of the active layer has been identified as a key indicator to achieve TW level production, and NREL has recently allocated part of its R & D funds to this R & D direction.
Since new devices can be recycled and reproduced, raw materials used in thin film solar AGM Battery will not be exhausted as petrochemical fuels.Actual. 24 only uses in or te as a by-product of other minerals, but does not consider the production of in or te as a major mineral.We still don't know the specific potential reserves of IN and TE, especially the reserves of TE. The market demand of TE is still very small, and it is likely to have considerable untapped reserves.If such reserves are verified, the raw material supply of copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar AGM Battery and cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery will be completely changed.
Since the possibility of in or te as the main mineral is unknown, we will limit the cumulative production to the actual value of .24.Assuming the capacity factor CF is 20 %, the peak power of 17 TWP and 30 TWP of the maximum installed capacity of copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar cell and cadmium telluride thin film solar cell 2065 will be converted to the power generation power of 3.4 TW and 6 TWP.This means that each of these technologies can cope with the Taiwa challenge and effectively contribute to reducing climate change.This installation amount can be a considerable part of the total demand of 1020 TW and can be compared with the existing energy demand of 3TW in the United States.Since we did not consider the possibility of in and te as major minerals, the installation of copper indium gallium selenium thin film solar AGM Battery and cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery in 2065 will be even larger.If the thickness of the active layer is reduced, the conversion efficiency of the device is improved, and the components are recycled, the problem of raw material supply will be further alleviated, and the demand for newly extracted raw materials will be relatively reduced after 2065.Although cadmium telluride thin-film solar AGM Battery and copper indium gallium selenium thin-film solar AGM Battery have strong cost-effective advantages, we do not assume that they will occupy the entire market share for the sake of caution, after all, the production capacity of copper indium gallium smashing thin-film solar AGM Battery has not yet been confirmed.
In addition to raw material supply, the toxicity of TE and SE also needs further discussion.Although some people think the toxicity of Te is a serious problem, many studies show that it is safe to produce, use and process / recycle cadmium telluride thin film solar cell modules [ 23' 24' 253.After all, the raw material used in cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery is the relatively stable compound CdTe, rather than directly using Te.From the point of view of market acceptance, TE also has no problem.As the largest market for cadmium telluride thin film solar AGM Battery, Germany is a country that attaches great importance to environmental protection and heavy metal pollution.
There are also some doubts that Se in Cu - In - Ga - Se thin-film solar AGM Battery is also toxic, but its recent widespread use as a food supplement has greatly improved its negative impression.Other solar cell technologies usually have some minor toxicity problems.The solder of crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery contains Pb, while silicon-based thin film solar AGM Battery use poisonous explosive gas SiH4.In fact, almost any form of energy can only reach TW level.There will be some environmental problems.Therefore, the large-scale use of thin-film solar AGM Battery is the best choice in terms of environmental impact and energy recovery period EPBT.
Another issue discussed is whether the large-scale installation of the number of solar AGM Battery TW will consume too much land area.In fact, the average annual sunshine level of 125000 TW on the earth's surface given in document [ 3 ] can dispel such concerns.Assuming the sunshine is evenly distributed on land and sea, the land can receive 36000 TW of sunshine.If we need 20TW photovoltaic power generation, even if the solar cell module conversion efficiency is only 10 %, only 0.55 % of the land area is needed to install the solar cell module.The stacking factor is the ratio of component area to system floor area.Assuming a stacking factor of 40 % for solar cell modules, 1.4 % of the land area will eventually be required to install the photovoltaic system.Now1.1 % of the U.S. territory is military land, mainly military bases and bomb disposal areas.In the United States, 0.04 % of the land area is devoted to conifers needed to grow Christmas trees.Using 1.4 % of the land area for photovoltaic power generation should not be a serious burden to transform our energy structure into solar energy, but a huge advantage of solar energy, because no other non-carbon dioxide energy source can approach a similar level of energy density per unit area except nuclear power generation.The above analysis also completely ignores the reduced land area requirements for installing photovoltaic systems on roofs or other existing buildings.
Technical risk and industrialization risk
Actual. 14 briefly describes the relative risk factors and major risks faced by various thin film solar cell technology routes.The biggest risk in the industrialization of thin film solar AGM Battery may come from the technical risk caused by insufficient scientific research.With the exception of crystalline silicon solar AGM Battery and some silicon-based thin-film solar AGM Battery, the semiconductor materials of most types of thin-film solar AGM Battery are different from the mainstream electronic materials, so they do not get enough support from scientific research outside the photovoltaic field.Some minor problems have been exaggerated.Among them, several serious problems are still difficult to solve:
Amorphous silicon thin film solar AGM Battery: S - W effect;
Copper, indium, gallium and selenium thin film solar AGM Battery: stoichiometry and non-uniformity of multi - elements;CdTe Thin Film Solar Cells: Defects in CdTe Layer and Contact Electrode and Their Interaction.Impedance-based non-linear dynamic battery modeling for automotive applications
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