Reasons for China's PV battery exports to Europe and the United States continue to grow and risks to be prevented
Abstract: In today's global advocate of low-carbon environmental protection, new energy products will gradually replace traditional energy sources. As an important category of new energy products, PV batteries occupy an increasingly important position in China's PV industry trade. While the European and American markets are the second largest market for PV battery exports in China, while the export scale is showing a growing trend, there are also some potential risks. This paper examines the current situation of China's PV battery products exported to Europe and the United States, and on this basis, studies the reasons for the growth of China's PV battery exports to Europe and the United States and the risks to be prevented, and proposes relevant countermeasures.
Keywords: PV batterys; European and American markets; growth status; risk prevention
PV (photovoltaic) batteries, also known as solar photovoltaic batterys, are one of the most important products in the photovoltaic industry and are widely used in space stations. In the fields of automobiles, airplanes, electronics and power stations. As a new energy product and a strategic emerging industry supported by the state, the development of PV batterys is closely related to the development of China's economy. At the same time, due to the global warming crisis brought about by the greenhouse effect, the demand for new energy products is increasing. In 2014, the domestic PV battery production was 33.5 GW, making it the world's largest PV battery producer in the United States, Japan and other countries. China's PV battery industry's dependence on exports is very high, and the scale of production is still expanding blindly. There have been signs of overcapacity, and the domestic PV battery industry has faced greater pressure on industrial transformation and has more risk issues. As one of the major export markets for PV batterys in China, the European and American markets occupy a very important position in the export of PV batterys in China. Therefore, it is very important to understand the reasons for the continued growth of PV batterys exported to Europe and the United States and the risks to be prevented.
First, the status quo of China's PV battery exports to Europe and the United States
(I) Total trade
According to UN Comtrade statistics, the export value of China's PV batteries to the European and American markets has fluctuated greatly in the past five years. In particular, there was a large decline in 2012, but it continued to rise after 2014, and the number of exports also showed a rapid growth. According to Table 1, between 2010 and 2011, the export volume and export volume of China's PV batterys to the European and American markets have increased significantly. In 2010, the export value of PV batteries to the European and American markets was 225.38 million US dollars, and the export volume was 498.85 million. By 2011, the export value and export volume of PV batteries to the European and American markets increased to 239.948 million US dollars and 54.46 million respectively. 7.0%. However, due to the double-reverse investigations in the European and American markets, the production and export of PV batteries in China suffered a big blow. In 2012, the export value to the European and American markets fell to US$134.706 million, down 43.6% year-on-year; the export volume was 46.849 million, down year-on-year. 9.0%; in 2013, the export value to the European and American markets was 715.467 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 47%, and the scale of exports further reduced. In 2014, due to the increase in domestic and international market demand and the easing of trade restrictions in the international market, in 2014-2015, the export value and export volume of PV batteries to the European and American markets have increased by a large scale, especially the export volume. In 2014, the number of exports to the European and American markets was 864.023 million, an increase of 158.08%. In 2015, it exceeded 133 billion for the first time, an increase of 57.56% year-on-year; the export value also showed a continuous upward trend, and the export value to the European and American markets in 2014 It was 736.783 million US dollars, an increase of 3.0%; in 2015 it was 776.263 million US dollars, an increase of 5.4%. Overall, the export volume of PV batterys in China has grown steadily and rapidly, the volatility of export value has increased, and the scale of exports has further expanded.
(II) Trade Status
According to the Ministry of Commerce's 2010-2015 data, China's PV battery exports are spread across Asia, Africa, Europe, America and Latin America. The European and American markets ranked first in China's PV battery exports in 2010-2013, but after 2014, the Asian market surpassed the European and American markets and became China's main export target market. In 2010-2015, although the proportion of PV batteries exported to Europe and the United States in China's total exports has been decreasing, the European and American markets as the second largest market is still the most important target market for PV battery exports in China, and the total export of PV batteries in China. The proportion in China has been above 33%. At the same time, China's PV batteries exported to the Asian market have gradually surpassed exports to the European and American markets. In 2014, PV batteries exported to Asian countries (regions) accounted for more than half of China's total exports, and reached 57.6 in 2015. %. In terms of exporting countries, four of the top ten countries (regions) that exported PV batteries in China in 2014 and 2015 came from Europe and the United States, and both were in the top eight. In 2014, the proportion of total exports was as high as 31.8. %. China's PV batteries ranked second in terms of US exports. In 2014, the export value was US$216.18 million, up 29.3% year-on-year; followed by the Netherlands, with an export value of US$110.84 million. However, with the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” policy, the strong demand for PV batterys in Latin America has also driven the development of China's PV battery industry. In the first half of 2015, China exported PV batteries to Chile for US$194.4 million, Latin American and Asian markets. Together they will become an emerging market for China's PV product exports.
(3) Trade Mode
In the past two years, China’s exports of PV batteries to European and American markets have mainly adopted the general trade export method. From January to June 2016, China's PV battery general trade export volume was 4.45 billion US dollars, exceeding the processing trade export volume of 200 million US dollars, general trade increased by 31.2%, accounting for 67% of China's total PV battery exports. Processing trade fell by as much as 39% compared with the previous period. It can be seen that the general trade export of PV batterys in China has been increasing in total exports. China has gradually reduced the external dependence of PV batterys, achieved independent production and research and development, and the PV battery trade has developed very well. Due to the improvement of the research and development process of PV batterys, the profitability of enterprises has been significantly improved, but the scale of production of large enterprises with large scale, advanced technology and brand effect has been continuously improved; small and medium-sized enterprises with small scale and short development time limit It faces the dilemma of difficulty in receiving orders, and most SMEs mainly undertake processing trade links such as OEM production. From the perspective of production distribution in China, the top PV PV exporters in China are Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province. In 2016, Jiangsu PV battery exports amounted to US$3.07 billion, accounting for 46% of the total exports. At the same time, China's PV batterys have formed a cluster of PV industry clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions.
Second, the reasons for the rapid growth of China's PV battery exports to Europe and the United States
(1) The increasing demand for new energy in Europe and the United States and the development of the carbon trading market
Since the 20th century, people have gradually realized the environmental ecology The problem is gradually deteriorating. Although the traditional coal and other energy industries have brought about tremendous economic development, they have caused fatal damage to the environment. People urgently need to find environmentally friendly new energy instead of traditional energy for industrial production. In this case, the PV industry was born, and like wind and biomass, solar energy is a renewable energy source, and development is relatively more convenient, and development has a certain technical foundation. Developed countries such as Europe and the United States are taking the lead in developing new energy sources and gradually replacing their dependence on traditional energy sources. However, domestic production is far from increasing demand for new energy sources. Therefore, China, as the world's largest PV battery production country, has become a European and American market. The primary choice for battery imports. On the other hand, in order to alleviate environmental pollution, developed countries such as Europe and the United States have begun to build carbon trading markets. Europe is the first to introduce a low-carbon economy. The construction of the carbon trading market has entered the third stage and will be realized by 2020. With the improvement of the carbon trading market, China has also followed the trend and gradually began to improve the construction of the carbon trading market. By 2017, the national unified carbon trading market will be established. With the completion of the construction of the carbon trading market, it has also brought unprecedented opportunities for the development of the PV industry. China's exports of PV batterys to the European and American markets have thus achieved rapid growth.
(2) There is serious environmental pollution in the production of PV batterys, which makes European and American countries tend to import. Although PV batteries are a new energy source, they are very effective in solving the pollution problems caused by traditional energy sources. However, due to the immature development of the PV industry, there is always a problem of high energy consumption and high pollution in the production of PV batterys. In the production of PV batterys, it is necessary to use chemical raw materials such as hydrofluoric acid, nitric acid, and nitrogen to generate a gas that pollutes the environment such as nitric oxide. At the same time, in the PV industry chain, polysilicon is the main material for the production of PV batterys, and its production and purification technologies are the highest. The production process has improved Siemens and fluidized bed processes, although its process is gradually improving, but A lot of energy is still consumed in production. With the increase of domestic installed capacity in Europe and the United States, the demand for PV batterys is very large. In order to reduce the emission of pollutants in the country, European and American countries will reduce and rectify the departments that produce large pollution in production, and on the other hand, through foreign countries. Import related products to meet the needs of the country. As a major producer of PV batterys, China has naturally become the first choice for importing PV batterys in Europe and the United States.
(III) Expansion of bilateral trade cooperation between China and European and American countries
With the introduction of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy in 2013, China has gradually strengthened its trade with Europe, Asia and Africa, based on the existing multi-bilateral trade mechanism. In the above, the category of traded goods was expanded and trade with European countries was strengthened. According to Eurostat data, China has been the main importer of PV batterys in the Netherlands since 2014. Imports reached US$110.84 million, up 3.5% year-on-year, and China accounted for 36.6% of such imports in the Netherlands. On the other hand, as a big country in the world, China and the United States are gradually exploring ways to strengthen trade between the two countries. In November 2015, the 10th meeting of the China-US High Technology and Strategic Trade Working Group was held in Washington, and the two countries strengthened trade. Further exploration was carried out. In 2014, the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States was US$555.12 billion, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year. In 2015, the bilateral import and export volume of Sino-US bilateral goods was US$598.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. It can be seen that China is gradually increasing its bilateral trade with European and American countries, which has brought new opportunities for the development of China's PV battery exports. Through intergovernmental consultations, the Chinese government has actively promoted trade associations with European and American countries. The economic consultation will promote high-quality photovoltaic enterprises to “go global”, build China's own photovoltaic industry brand, and promote the sound development of the PV industry.
(4) Domestic PV companies' positive response to trade frictions between Europe and the United States
Since 2012, trade frictions between China and Europe and the United States in the PV industry have increased, which has had a huge impact on China's PV battery exports. China's PV market exports to Europe and the United States have experienced dramatic fluctuations, but domestic PV companies have also responded positively: on the one hand, they have strengthened technical exchanges with European and American countries, learned advanced production experience from Europe and the United States, and compared with actual production in China. Combine and improve the quality and added value of PV battery products; on the other hand, actively respond to the double-reverse investigations in Europe and the United States, understand the causes of the double-reverse investigations and related treatment processes, and raise awareness of rights protection, prepare for the required time, and grasp The timing of the appeal will, to a certain extent, slow down or even eliminate the harm caused by trade friction. In March 2015, the Canadian Border Services Agency announced the final result of the double-reverse investigation of China's PV products. Zhejiang Yuhui Company obtained a lower dumping margin of 9.10% after actively responding. In October 2016, after a re-survey, the Australian Anti-Dumping Committee determined that the damage caused by PV products imported from China to the domestic industry was negligible, thus ending the anti-dumping investigation against PV products in China. It can be seen that domestic PV companies are facing a positive response to trade frictions in Europe and the United States, which has caused the losses suffered by double-reverse investigations to gradually shrink, and the export impact on China's PV batteries is gradually decreasing.
Third, China's PV battery exports to Europe and the United States to prevent risks and countermeasures
(A) trade dependence on European and American countries is too high, trade structure imbalance
In recent years, although China's PV battery exports "two at the end The problem has eased, but the dependence on foreign markets such as Europe and the United States is still too high. More than half of China's PV battery production is used for export. The scale of China's exports of PV batterys to the United States has also been increasing year by year, since 2014. The United States is the second largest exporter of PV batteries in China. The export value increased from US$167.627 million in 2013 to US$216.18 million in 2014, an increase of 15% from the previous year. Moreover, due to the increase in domestic installed capacity, China's import demand for polysilicon and other products has also maintained a large growth rate. From January to October 2015, China imported a total of 96,400 tons of polysilicon from Germany and other countries, and the import dependence is still above 50%. China’s high import and high export dilemma still exists, and the trade structure has not yet been fully improved. Faced with this situation, in order to guide the healthy and normal operation of the domestic PV industry market and adjust the trade structure, on the one hand, the government should strengthen the policy guidance for PV batterys, and further expand the market for PV industry under the “13th Five-Year Plan”. To create a good environment, steadily regulate the production scale of PV batterys, and gradually expand the demand of the PV industry domestic market; on the other hand, China should strictly regulate the entry barriers of the PV industry, and develop a series of scales including enterprise production scale and enterprise R\u0026D capabilities. The access requirements for energy consumption standards, environmental standards and supporting facilities, strictly control the production capacity of PV batterys, and strengthen the supervision of enterprises by the National Energy Agency and the Photovoltaic Industry Association.
(2) Developed countries such as Europe and the United States are committed to promoting “return of industry”
Since 2015, global economic growth has been sluggish, under the multiple influences of Brexit, European refugee problems and terrorist attacks, and the Fed’s interest rate hike The growth of the world economy has become more uncertain. At the same time, developed countries such as Europe and the United States are committed to promoting "return of industry" and attracting the return of high-end manufacturing, which may lead to a decline in external demand for PV batterys in the European and American markets. Therefore, in order to ensure the scale of export of enterprises and improve the international competitiveness of enterprises, domestic PV enterprises should increase investment in research and development of products. In the production of PV batterys, China should strictly follow internationally accepted product production standards, strictly control standards such as performance, safety and technology, and establish a sound supervision mechanism. In order to narrow the gap with developed countries, on the one hand, PV battery export enterprises should seriously study the production experience of photovoltaic industry in Germany, Japan, etc., increase technical exchanges between enterprises, hold industry forums, etc.; on the other hand, PV battery exports Enterprises should increase R\u0026D funds, hire professional R\u0026D teams to produce products, and increase cooperation with relevant teams of energy colleges in universities, set up university R\u0026D bases, encourage teachers and students to conduct innovative research and development on PV battery-related industries, and pay attention to knowledge. The protection of property rights protects the research results of the university team and combines the research results with the actual production through the company-sponsored research and development base to drive the innovation and development of the enterprise.
(3) The imbalance of domestic PV industry chain structure, the pressure on business operations, and thus the export of PV batterys to Europe and the United States
The photovoltaic industry chain is divided into upper and middle reaches, the upstream industry is the production and purification of polysilicon, PV batteries The production of its components is in the middle of the industrial chain, while the downstream is the application system, including photovoltaic power stations. As the main material for the production of PV batterys, polysilicon has the highest production and purification technology and belongs to the top of the industrial chain. However, the cost of polysilicon produced by domestic enterprises is far higher than the international market price. In November 2016, the price of polysilicon was 132,000 yuan/ton, up 15.9% from the same period of the previous year. At the same time, the manufacture of photovoltaic modules has low barriers to entry, low investment, and low technical content, attracting a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises and forming vicious competition. The industries with high technological content in the industrial chain are mainly controlled in Europe and America. In the hands of developed countries, domestic enterprises are difficult to imitate, so the entire industrial structure is inverted triangle, the added value of products is not high, the application level is low, and the structure of the industrial chain is unbalanced. In response to this situation, in order to optimize the structure of the industrial chain, the following measures can be taken: First, improve production processes and methods, eliminate enterprises with large energy consumption and backward production processes, and establish a sound entry and exit mechanism for production and energy consumption. Enterprises that do not meet the standards in terms of environment and other aspects shall be rectified within a time limit. If they exceed the time limit for rectification, they will be ordered to withdraw, in order to cultivate a large number of high-quality export enterprises with heavy brands and heavy product quality. Second, cultivate downstream related industries and regulate downstream related enterprises. Enter the threshold and standards, develop multiple product lines, strengthen exchanges and cooperation with enterprises in the application fields of automobiles, airplanes, electronics and power stations, develop related supporting service industries, and provide a series of supporting products for production, installation, application and consultation. Third, strengthen the cooperation and exchange of upper, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, form an industrial agglomeration area, and use the industrial agglomeration effect to further reduce the production cost of the enterprise.
(4) Increased trade friction of PV batteries exported to Europe and the United States
In recent years, with the significant slowdown in world economic growth, global trade frictions have continued. From 1995 to 2014, a total of 5,137 double-reverse investigations were initiated by WTO members, and China had the most cases involving 153 cases. As the world's largest producer and exporter of PV batterys, China has a market share of around 70%. Therefore, in order to curb China's unique phenomenon, China has adopted a series of trade protection measures for the export of PV batterys in China. As early as 2012, the United States and the European Union conducted a double-reverse investigation on China's PV battery exports; in June 2015, Canada announced the final ruling on China's PV double-reaction survey, saying that China's PV industry is a non-market economy industry; August 2016 The European Commission decided to officially revoke the qualifications of five Chinese PV companies for price commitments. In the face of increasing trade friction, in order to achieve the healthy operation of PV batterys exported to Europe and the United States, on the one hand, the Chinese government and the photovoltaic industry association should conduct research on the trade friction of the photovoltaic industry to understand the reasons for the double-reverse investigation and related processing procedures. In response to the previous cases of trade remedy, a trade friction warning mechanism was established to understand the major regions and countries in China's PV battery encounters and the related solutions through big data analysis, and provide reference and warning for the subsequent enterprises. On the other hand, providing free legal counseling services to SMEs, fostering the awareness of rights and interests of SMEs, so that SMEs will not be at a loss when they encounter double-reverse investigations, thus losing the opportunity for appeal.
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